When the 2025 NFL season futures market opened at the culmination of Philadelphia’s thrashing of Kansas City last February, four teams towered above the rest. Both the Eagles and the Chiefs were among them, with the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens priced slightly shorter. Oddsmakers handed them a combined 68% implied probability of lifting the Lombardi. Ten months later, that quartet is a combined 28-23 through Week 14, none own their division, and their average odds have ballooned.
The Chiefs are mathematically alive but spiritually battered; the Ravens need binoculars to see a way past the Pittsburgh Steelers and into the playoffs; the Eagles just dropped three straight; and the Bills can’t decide if they’re world-beaters or frauds. What looked like a four-horse race has become a demolition derby. This is the autopsy of the preseason favorites: where the wheels came off, how far the odds have tumbled, and what miracle fixes could still drag one of them to New Orleans in February.
Buffalo Bills
Online betting sites determined that 2025 was the year of the Buffalo Bills. |They headed into the season as AFC East favorites with +650 Super Bowl odds, boasting an 11.5-win projection and Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber arm. But at 8-5 entering Week 15, they’re clinging to a wild-card spot, and those who bet on NFL at Bovada can now back them at a whopping +900. And had it not been for Joe Burrow’s wild meltdown for the Cincinnati Bengals deep into the fourth quarter of these two’s recent clash at Highmark, it could have been worse.
The plight? A once-explosive offense has become a feast-or-famine nightmare, erupting for 40+ points in three games but sputtering into the teens in three others, including a humiliating 30-13 loss to the lowly Dolphins in week 10, a game in which Allen was sacked three times and intercepted in the endzone. Road woes compound the pain: three losses in five away tilts, capped by a 23-19 defeat to the Texans, despite outgaining them by 65 yards—thanks to offensive futility and 70 yards lost to sacks.
To reclaim their Lombardi destiny, Buffalo must rediscover balance: Commit to James Cook’s league-leading rushing TDs to ease Allen’s hero-ball burden, tighten red-zone efficiency, and force turnovers on defense. With a favorable late schedule, including a pivotal upcoming clash with the high-flying New England, the Bills can still snag the East—but only if they shed this bipolar identity before January’s chill sets in.
Baltimore Ravens
Preseason Super Bowl hopefuls at +650 with an 11.5-win floor, the Baltimore Ravens sit at 6-7, their +1800 odds a stark reminder of a campaign gone awry. Once the AFC’s most feared ground-and-pound machine, they’re now desperate for a playoff pulse, holding a single-digit postseason shot per most models. The five-game win streak post-1-5 start felt like vintage Harbaugh magic, but back-to-back divisional gut-punches—a 32-14 Thanksgiving rout by the 4-9 Bengals and a 27-22 squeaker to Pittsburgh have them on life support.
Offensively, the Ravens’ signature rush attack—fifth in yards (136.8 per game) but lowest attempts since 2016 (27.5)—has stalled, with Derrick Henry held to 10 carries in the Bengals debacle, despite 6.0 yards per pop. Lamar Jackson, averaging a career-low 5.7 rushes per game amid hamstring tweaks, has been mortal, while the line ranks 24th in sacks allowed, turning explosive plays into two-minute drills.
Red-zone woes bite hardest: From 74.2% TD rate last year to middling now, killing drives. Home haunts add insult—3-5 at M&T Bank Stadium, their worst since 2015. As such, salvation demands grit. Feed Henry 20+ touches to revive the duo with Jackson (their 94.5 rushing grade was historic), shore up edge rush (Odafe Oweh must breakout sans game-changer), and ignite takeaways (a -7 differential plagues them). Facing the Bengals again in Week 15, a win buys breathing room in a soft close. Super Bowl or bust? More like playoffs or purgatory.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles strutted into 2025 as Super Bowl LIX champions with +700 odds to repeat the feat in Santa Clara. Yet at 8-5 after three straight losses, +1100 odds underscore a title defense teetering on the brink, with echoes of 2023’s late collapse sounding alarm bells.
Back-to-back grotty low-scoring victories against Green Bay and Detroit looked to have Philly back on track. However, since then, familiar woes have resurfaced, with defeats to Chicago and a 22-19 OT heartbreaker to the Chargers further exposing frailties, dropping them to fourth in NFC odds.
The core issue? An offense lacking identity, mired in mediocrity: 23rd in passing, 22nd in rushing, and scoreless beyond 21 points since October. Jalen Hurts, Super Bowl MVP, authored a career-worst nightmare versus L.A.—four picks and a fumble on one chaotic play—ballooning turnovers to league-high levels. Saquon Barkley, post-2,000-yard miracle, limps at 3.4 yards per carry, his 150-yard burst against the Giants the lone bright spot amid o-line injuries shuffling elite talent like Lane Johnson.
A.J. Brown’s hamstring exile fueled cryptic drama, stunting a WR corps that’s elite on paper but disjointed under new coordinator Kevin Patullo. Defensively, Vic Fangio’s top-graded unit from last year holds firm (ninth in points allowed), but can’t mask offensive predictability—third-down conversions at 55/161.
To hoist another Lombardi, Philly needs cohesion: Unleash Hurts’ dual-threat with deeper drops, integrate Brown-Smith for separation, and fortify the line for Barkley’s explosiveness. Anything less and the Dallas Cowboys may steal the division in scarcely believable fashion.
Kansas City Chiefs
Dynasty darlings, despite their Super Bowl LIX scars, the Kansas City Chiefs languish at 6-7, +5500 longshots and now even playoff underdogs at +550. Eliminated from AFC West contention for the first time since 2015—swept by surging Denver—they’re 10th in the conference, their 0-5 one-score record a far cry from 2024’s perfect 11-0 clutch mark. A 20-10 Week 14 thud to Houston sealed the skid, outgained 373-244 in a listless snoozer in which even the great Patrick Mahomes looked unable to stop the rot.
The autopsy? An offense surviving, not thriving: Seventh in EPA but fragile, ditching deep shots for quick dumps. Mahomes, no longer bailing out cracks, has just 22 TDs to 10 picks, his scrambles propping a middling line that is prone to penalties and drops. See Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce’s recent disaster-class against the Texans.
Special teams sabotage seals it—penalties nullify returns, Harrison Butker’s inconsistency costs field position. Emotional fatigue from three straight Finals haunts. Reigniting the ailing dynasty requires evolution: Andy Reid must unleash Mahomes’ arm, build WR depth beyond retreads, and Steve Spagnuolo’s D must convert pressures (tenth in red-zone stops) into stops. Four winnable games loom, but at 6-7, the dynasty teeters.